On July 31, Clinton and Trump were tied, 50-50, in Nate Silver's forecast of victory possibilities for November, based on an exhaustive and comprehensive analysis of all polling data. Five days later, the same polling analysis gives Hillary a 78 percent chance of victory against 22 percent for Trump. This is clearly more than a post-convention bounce.
Has there ever been a polling decline as precipitous as the one set in motion when Trump began sharing his latest thoughts (if that's the right word) in the past five days? I sure can't think of a precedent.
What the Republicans have to fear in the Trump debacle, above all, is not a wave of defections to Hillary, who seems all but certain to win the Presidency. It is, rather, a low turnout, which could threaten their control of the House as well as the Senate, sinking the already slim possibility that they can stonewall Clinton's Supreme Court nominations. That's the ball game.
Frank Viviano © 2016
Frank Viviano is a Sicilian-American journalist and foreign correspondent.
Sinking in the Polls
Dan Hubig © 1980
I discontinued the syndication of my political drawings some 30 years ago .... however, it's surprising (and depressing) to me to see how many of those images remain relevant. So, as a signpost to the future, here's a bit of the past ...
"The worst thing you could be, in the world of Donald Trump, is a “loser.” And right now, he looks like one. According to FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-only” forecast of the election, Trump has a 31.6-percent chance of winning in November. At the Princeton Election Consortium, Sam Wang puts Trump’s odds at 20 percent. And in the Huffington Post average of all polls, he trails by almost 6 points, 41.1 percent to Clinton’s 46.9 percent. Some of this reflects the Democratic National Convention, which gave Clinton a substantial boost in the polls. Still, the underlying trend is real: Clinton is ahead...
"Hyperpolarization in the electorate gives Trump a floor in the national popular vote. Add structural advantages for the challenging party, and there’s a decent chance that Trump comes close to Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012, which would put him above John McCain’s in 2008. A decisive loss but not an extraordinary one."
- Jamelle Boule, Slate 8/04/2016
Dan Hubig © 2016
Dan Hubig is an illustrator who lives in San Francisco, he was the political cartoonist, art director, illustrator, layout artist and newspaper deliveryman for the original Austin Sun.